Since 2021, global demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) has seen a sharp rise not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis. But by mid-2022, PVC demand is cooling rapidly and prices are falling because of rising interest rates and the highest inflation in decades. In 2020, demand for PVC resin, which is used to make pipes, door and window profiles, vinyl siding and other products, fell sharply in the early months of the global COVID-19 outbreak as construction activity slowed. S&P Global Commodity Insights data shows that in the six weeks to the end of April 2020, the price of PVC exported from the United States plunged by 39%, while the price of PVC in Asia and Turkey also fell by 25% to 31%. PVC prices and demand rebounded quickly by mid-2020, with strong growth momentum through early 2022. Market participants said that from the demand side, remote home office and children's home online education have promoted the growth of housing PVC demand. On the supply side, high freight rates for Asian exports have made Asian PVC uncompetitive as it enters other regions for most of 2021, the United States has reduced supply due to extreme weather events, several production units in Europe have been disrupted, and energy prices have persisted. Rising, thereby greatly raising the cost of production, making the global PVC prices rise rapidly. Market participants have predicted that PVC prices will return to normal in early 2022, with global PVC prices slowly falling back. However, factors such as the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the epidemic in Asia have had a profound impact on PVC demand, and global inflation has triggered higher prices for basic necessities such as food and energy, as well as rising global interest rates and fears of economic recession. After a period of price increases, PVC market demand began to be curbed. In the housing market, according to data from Freddie Mac, the average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.29% in September, up from 2.88% in September 2021 and 3.22% in January 2022. Mortgage rates have more than doubled now, doubling monthly payments and weakening homebuyers' loan affordability, Stuart Miller, executive chairman of Lennar, the second-largest U.S. homebuilder, said in September. The ability to "greatly affect" the US real estate market is bound to curb demand for PVC in construction at the same time. In terms of price, the PVC markets in Asia, the United States and Europe are basically separated from each other. As freight rates plummeted and Asian PVC regained its global competitiveness, Asian producers began to cut prices to compete for market share. U.S. producers also responded with price cuts, prompting U.S. and Asian PVC prices to fall first. In Europe, the price of PVC products in Europe is higher than before because of continued high energy prices and potential energy shortages, especially because of the potential shortage of electricity, which has led to a decline in PVC production from the chlor-alkali industry. However, falling US PVC prices may open an arbitrage window to Europe, and European PVC prices will not get out of hand. In addition, European PVC demand has also declined due to the economic recession and logistics congestion.

Before the National Day holiday, under the influence of poor economic recovery, weak market transaction atmosphere and unstable demand, the PVC market did not improve significantly. Although the price rebounded, it still remained at a low level and fluctuated. After the holiday, the PVC futures market is temporarily closed, and the PVC spot market is mainly based on its own factors. Therefore, supported by factors such as the rise in the price of raw calcium carbide and the uneven arrival of goods in the region under the restriction of logistics and transportation, the price of the PVC market has continued to rise, with a daily increase. In 50-100 yuan / ton. Traders' shipping prices have been raised, and the actual transaction can be negotiated. However, the downstream construction is still inconsistent. Just need to purchase mainly, the demand side has not improved significantly, and the overall transaction is still average. From the perspective of the market outlook, the PVC market price is at a low level. Affected by individual or multiple favorable factors, the PVC price is prone to a low rebound. However, in the context of the economic environment and the situation of the PVC industry has not improved, it is still possible to continue to rise. pressure, so the rebound space is limited. The specific analysis can be divided into three aspects: first, the continued oversupply of the PVC market will suppress the rebound of PVC prices; secondly, there are still uncertainties in external factors such as the epidemic, which limit the recovery and development of the PVC industry; Whether the recovery of the domestic or foreign PVC market still needs a certain reaction time, there is a high probability that there will be a clear trend in late October.

According to customs statistics, in August 2022, my country's export volume of PVC pure powder decreased by 26.51% month-on-month and increased by 88.68% year-on-year; from January to August, my country exported a total of 1.549 million tons of PVC pure powder, an increase of 25.6% compared with the same period last year. In September, the performance of my country's PVC export market was average, and the overall market operation was weak. The specific performance and analysis are as follows. Ethylene-based PVC exporters: In September, the export price of ethylene-based PVC in East China was around US$820-850/ton FOB. After the company entered the middle of the year, it began to close externally. Some production units faced maintenance, and the supply of PVC in the region decreased accordingly. Calcium carbide PVC export enterprises: The price range of calcium carbide PVC export in Northwest China is 820-880 US dollars / ton FOB; the quotation range in North China is 820-860 US dollars / ton FOB; Southwest China calcium carbide PVC export enterprises have not received orders recently, no report disc announced. Recently, the severe and complex domestic and international situation has had a certain impact on the PVC export market across the country; first of all, foreign low-priced sources of goods have begun to impact the domestic market, especially the PVC exported from the United States to various countries. Second, the downstream demand for real estate construction continued to shrink; finally, the high cost of domestic PVC raw materials made it difficult for external disks to receive orders, and the price of PVC external disks continued to decline. It is expected that the domestic PVC export market will continue its downward trend for some time to come.

After the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the early shutdown and maintenance equipment resumed production, and the domestic paste resin market supply has increased. Although the downstream construction has improved compared with the previous period, the export of its own products is not good, and the enthusiasm for the purchase of paste resin is limited, resulting in paste resin. Market conditions continued to decline. In the first ten days of August, due to the increase in export orders and the failure of mainstream production enterprises, domestic paste resin manufacturers have raised their ex-factory quotations, and downstream purchases have been active, resulting in a tight supply of individual brands, which has promoted the continuous recovery of the domestic paste resin market. East China, South China and other major consumption areas High-end offer prices all exceeded 9,000 yuan / ton. After entering September, although the maintenance of paste resin enterprises is still relatively concentrated, the downstream has entered the Mid-Autumn Festival to stop work one after another, the market demand for paste resin has further shrunk, the market has fallen from high fluctuations, and downstream factories are mainly buying on dips. After the Mid-Autumn Festival, there was a significant increase in downstream construction, but the supply of goods for centralized procurement in the early stage was still not fully digested, and the enthusiasm for procurement was not high. In addition, according to some downstream factories, due to the severe inflation in Europe and North America, this year's Christmas orders have been delayed compared with previous years, and some completed orders have been requested by importers to delay delivery, which has caused storage and capital of domestic processing enterprises. greater pressure.